Why estimates?
There is no free, official, hourly feed of UK retail heating oil prices. Suppliers set their own prices and many only quote on request. Instead of copying prices from other websites, we build an independent estimate from public wholesale market data, using a transparent formula that anyone can check.
Data sources
- Wholesale heating oil: the front-month NYMEX New York Harbor ULSD (heating oil) futures price, in US dollars per gallon, from Yahoo Finance's public market data. It is a widely followed benchmark for middle-distillate fuels and moves closely with European gasoil, which sets UK wholesale prices.
- Exchange rate: GBP/USD from Yahoo Finance, with European Central Bank reference rates (via Frankfurter) as a backup.
- Tax: the reduced 5% VAT rate for domestic heating fuel and the rebated duty rate on gas oil (10.18p per litre), as published by HM Revenue & Customs.
We download fresh data and recalculate every price on the site once an hour. Futures quotes can be delayed, and markets close at weekends, in which case the most recent traded price is used. If the data source is unreachable, the site keeps showing the most recent stored figures and flags this clearly.
The formula
- Convert the futures price to pence per litre: dollars per gallon ÷ 3.785 litres ÷ GBP/USD × 100.
- Add a fuel basis (1.5p for kerosene, 0p for gas oil) to reflect the typical price difference between the benchmark and each fuel.
- Add a typical distribution margin of 9.5p per litre covering storage, delivery and supplier overheads.
- Add fuel duty where it applies (gas oil only).
- Apply an order-size adjustment and a regional adjustment (tables below).
- Add VAT at 5%.
Order-size adjustments (before VAT)
| Order | Adjustment |
|---|---|
| 500 litres | +3.4p |
| 900 litres | +0.8p |
| 1,000 litres | +0.4p |
| 1,500 litres | -0.6p |
| 2,000 litres | -1.2p |
Regional adjustments (before VAT)
| Region | Adjustment |
|---|---|
| Northern Ireland | -3.0p |
| East of England | -0.4p |
| Yorkshire & the Humber | -0.3p |
| East Midlands | -0.2p |
| West Midlands | 0.0p |
| North East England | +0.2p |
| North West England | +0.3p |
| South East England | +0.6p |
| South West England | +1.0p |
| Wales | +1.2p |
| Scotland (mainland) | +1.6p |
| Highlands & Islands | +6.0p |
The margin and adjustments are our own modelling assumptions based on typical delivery economics, and we review them periodically. They are averages: your own price may be higher or lower.
Limitations
- Supplier prices react to wholesale moves with a lag, often of one to several days.
- Local competition, access, delivery speed and payment method can change a quote by several pence per litre.
- Very small orders, emergency deliveries and island deliveries can be much more expensive than modelled.
Our figures are a benchmark to help you judge quotes — they are not offers to sell. Read our disclaimer for more.